Everything Going On In The Property Market Right Now

How might the recent UK budget impact the property market – especially first-time buyers?

“This year has been an extremely busy period for first time buyers. Reasons for this will largely come down to the fact that the private rental market has an unprecedented dearth of stock which has driven up rents. Combined with this, interest rates have fallen from the highs of 2023. This has meant that for the lucky first-time buyer who has access to a deposit, a purchase is often more affordable than a private rental. The budget was clearly hugely anticipated and in the three or four weeks preceding this event, there was a pause in activity, not unlike the hiatus we see before an election.”

Now, with potential changes to stamp duty and other property-related taxes, do you foresee a shift in demand?

“The stamp duty changes that have been made in the most recent budget affect second homeowners, although Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed the government will not scrap first-time buyer stamp duty relief in 2025 either. There are some markets that will be more heavily affected than others. Clearly, UK holiday homes and seaside hot spots will see an immediate effect, as will the prime central London markets that have a certain amount of pied-à-terre transactions. Our market is dominated (not entirely but mostly) by owner occupiers looking to purchase their primary residence, so we do not imagine there will be any local impact. A quick word on values quickly too – as far as I can tell, the forecast for the UK property market over the coming 12 months shows pretty stable growth.”

Speaking of values and prices, how do you see the current political landscape shaping the demand for high-end versus affordable housing?

“Traditionally, labour governments have been associated with house building booms and general construction investment. Unfortunately, I don’t think many of us came away from the budget feeling like there was much in the way of focus here. One thing I would note is that the new government has continued to penalise private landlords and understandably there are growing concerns over capital gains for property investments. We might find that people are more inclined to invest money into their primary residents which, for the moment at least, is not subject to a capital gain. This could mean more upsizing or money invested in home improvements.

“One of the biggest things to look out for will be the price of farmland in the coming months. The government’s change to the inheritance rules around passing on farming businesses may well have an effect on that part of the rural market.”

Are you seeing any notable shifts in the types of buyers in the UK market?

“Our market is hugely diverse in terms of the buyer profile. We deal with an extremely broad range of nationalities, most of whom have chosen southwest London to make their home. But this is different to what we might refer to as an international buyer. There is some muted overseas investment, particularly for new build properties but by and large, we are looking at a cosmopolitan buyer profile who has links into the financial services sector. That hasn’t really changed.”

In conclusion, what would you predict for the UK property market over the next 12 months? 

“Let’s not forget, I’m an estate agent, not an economist but I do regularly follow the economist and market commentator, Roger Martin Fagg. His most recent forecast suggested 2025 should be a similar year to 2024, with UK property transactions returning to pre-Covid levels of around 1.2 million. I would see this as a good thing and as such, remain cautiously positive.”

Do you anticipate any shifts in mortgage rates or lending practices?

“Mortgage lenders had been predicting two base rate reductions in the last quarter of 2024. So they priced this in and released some good deals ahead of time. This meant that there were some particularly good mortgage deals available in the run up to the budget. I understand that some aspects of the city of London were unnerved by the budget which meant that some of these particularly good mortgage rates were subsequently withdrawn. But this may well be a temporary “dust settling” exercise.”

With inflation and interest rates still under scrutiny, what would your advice be for homeowners considering refinancing or new buyers looking to secure a mortgage?

“Most people would consider that inflation is far less of a concern than it has been for some time. For most people, refinancing at some point is not an optional thing, it is something that we have to deal with, however painful. All I can say is that it will be less painful than if you had to do it in 2023. When it comes to first time buyers, I have been and I think I always will be, an advocate for anybody getting on the property ladder when they can. As ever, it’s always about buying the right thing in the right location at the right price.”

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